John's Market Thoughts
January 29, 2009
Weeklies holding better than dailies, but things are tough for everyone
Suburban Newspapers of America just released a report on the financial performance of their weekly membership during the first three quarters in 2008, which clearly shows that weeklies are holding up far better than dailies in the current market. Daily revenues were down an average of 15.5% (according to the Newspaper Association of America) compared to an average 2.3% decline by weeklies over the same period.
SNA makes the case that weeklies and smaller papers are a very different category of business than the larger daily papers, an idea we have long endorsed.
Valuation of smaller market dailies and weeklies has also not dropped nearly as much as the larger papers, but values are still down for all publications. The biggest problem is the lack of available financing, as banks have all but stalled on making newspaper loans. Excellent newspaper companies with low debt are finding that the terms suggested by lenders make no sense, and are frustrated because they are unable to buy in what is clearly a buyer's market.
Seller financing is the key to making deals in 2009, and it is not a bad thing for both buyers and sellers. Buyers can make acquisitions with a lender (the seller) who is more forgiving on terms than a traditional lender; sellers can make the sale, receive a somewhat higher price, and earn interest on much more of the purchase price. Seller-financed deals were common for years in smaller transactions and, although they carry more risk for the seller, can work just fine.
The inventory of mid-size and small papers to purchase is currently low, but that will change as the year progresses and the pent up demand to sell brings papers to the market. Buyers with cash are solid gold, and it can be an excellent time to contact potential add-on properties, as many papers that are not on the open market may have an interest in entertaining an offer.
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